Argentina open their FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign against Algeria at 17 June 2026, 01:00 UTC, and the headline is obvious: the champions are stronger. The betting question, though, is not whether Argentina deserve favouritism. They do. The question is whether that favouritism has been inflated into a two-goal stroll with a souvenir photo at the end.
That is where I am far less convinced. Lionel Scaloni is expected to go close to full strength, with Emiliano Martínez now likely to start despite the recent finger fracture, Messi looking ready, and Lautaro Martínez ahead of Julián Álvarez. Argentina’s midfield still has that lovely habit of making the ball look like it has a season ticket: De Paul, Enzo Fernández, Mac Allister and Thiago Almada can squeeze a game until it gasps.
But this is not a perfect demolition profile. Nicolás Tagliafico is out, which forces a reshuffle at left-back, probably with Facundo Medina or Lisandro Martínez filling the role. That does not make Argentina fragile, but it does make them a little less natural on that side. Álvarez is available after an ankle issue, yet more likely to be a bench weapon than a full-throttle starter. In other words, Argentina have class, but not quite the clean “press play, win by three” setup the shorter handicap prices seem to imply.
Algeria are set up to annoy, not audition for chaos
Algeria’s recent warm-up run is easy to misread. The win over the Netherlands was excellent for confidence, but it was not a masterclass in control; Luca Zidane had to be excellent, and Algeria spent long spells defending. The thrashing of Bolivia was more explosive after the break than dominant from start to finish. So no, Algeria are not suddenly arriving with a magic cape and a drum solo.
What they do have is a plan that suits this handicap. Vladimir Petkovic has talked about having more than one approach, and the local reporting points toward a back-three or back-five structure rather than a brave-but-breathless open game. Ramy Bensebaïni being available matters because he is one of the defensive organisers who can keep that block from turning into a queue at airport security.
The likely Algerian idea is simple enough: protect the centre, make Argentina play through traffic, use Mahrez’s delivery and the pace or movement of Gouiri, Amoura, Maza or Chaïbi in transition. That is not a plan designed to dominate possession. It is a plan designed to keep the match alive. For a plus handicap, alive is a beautiful word. Not glamorous, perhaps, but neither is a tax return and people still respect the result.
The opener changes the temperature
Tournament context also helps the underdog line. First group games are often about not stepping on a rake before the tournament has properly begun. Scaloni has publicly sounded respectful and measured, not like a manager about to chase a cricket score. Argentina know from their own history that openers can become emotionally strange, so control may be valued over spectacle.
For Algeria, a point would be excellent, but even a narrow defeat would keep their group position manageable with Austria and Jordan still to come. That is important: they do not need to treat this like a cup final in the final quarter if the score is tight. Goal difference matters, discipline matters, and the incentive is to stay compact rather than turn the match into a running race against Messi and friends. Spoiler: that is not a race many teams choose voluntarily.
The bookmaker appears to have priced Argentina’s superiority cleanly, but perhaps too cleanly. Yes, Argentina may win. They have the better midfield, the more reliable tournament core, and the individual quality to turn one lapse into a long evening. But the jump from “Argentina likely control this” to “Argentina likely win comfortably” is the part I do not want to buy.
The more realistic script has Argentina pushing, Algeria absorbing, and the favourite needing patience. A one-goal Argentina win would surprise nobody. A draw would not be science fiction either. Even a tense match where Algeria’s goalkeeper and back line spend the night busy but upright is very much in play. That is enough for the handicap to appeal.
