The market sees Norway as a heavy favourite, and on class alone that is fair. Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Alexander Sørloth — Norway have elite attacking pieces that Iraq cannot match man for man. But football is not played on paper, and the opening match of a World Cup group is a strange beast, especially for a team making its first tournament appearance since 1998.
Iraq are not here to make up the numbers. They arrived via a gruelling playoff route, through travel disruption and a last-gasp penalty shootout. They have a clear identity under Graham Arnold and René Meulensteen: compact 4-4-2, low block, patience. Their own assistant coach said the belief grows the longer the game stays 0-0. That is not a throwaway line — it is the game plan.
The burden of being favourite
Norway are expected to win, and that is exactly where the difficulty lies. A side that has almost no collective World Cup experience is being asked to break down a disciplined, motivated block in their first match of the tournament. The pressure to start well is real, and history is littered with examples of strong teams stumbling against stubborn underdogs in Group stage openers.
Norway's recent warm-up against Morocco exposed a familiar flaw: they start slowly. Ødegaard himself admitted the team began “messily” and gave away cheap turnovers. Iraq will have watched that tape closely. If Norway are sloppy in the opening 20 minutes, the Iraqis will gladly settle into a rhythm of defensive organisation and quick counter-attacks. Aymen Hussein and Ali Al-Hamadi may not be household names, but in a one-off match with low possession, they only need one chance.
Defensive resilience is not a myth
Iraq held a rotated Spain to a 1-1 draw on Spanish soil. That result is often dismissed because of the lineup changes, but it still required defensive discipline, compactness, and the ability to handle pressure. Those traits are exactly what Iraq will bring to Foxborough. They have also shown they can win high-stakes knockout games under extreme emotional weight. That does not disappear because the opposition is now Norway instead of Bolivia.
The friendly loss to Venezuela raised questions, but the context matters: Iraq had a man sent off just after the hour mark and were already chasing the game after an early goal. Against Norway, they will not chase — they will wait. If Iraq go behind early, the plan collapses, but if they survive the first 30-40 minutes, the match enters a different phase.
Norway's attacking ceiling vs Iraq's floor
There is no doubt Norway can score. Haaland, Nusa and Ødegaard can unlock any defence when in rhythm. But Iraq's best defence is their own approach: they will not commit numbers forward, they will fill central spaces, and they will accept long spells without the ball. Norway may need to be patient for 90 minutes, and patience is not always their strong suit when the scoreboard stays level.
Solbakken has full-strength options available, and the bench — Oscar Bobb, Andreas Schjelderup — gives him different profiles. But if the game is still 0-0 after 70 minutes, the momentum shifts. Iraq's emotional fuel is the fact that nobody expects anything from them. That is a dangerous combination against a team that knows it must win.
The line undervalues the likelihood of a tight, disciplined match where Norway's superiority in class is not easily converted into goals. The draw — a result that would be a triumph for Iraq and a frustration for Norway — is a genuine outcome that the odds have mispriced.
