France enter the World Cup opener as one of the tournament favourites, their attacking talent undeniable. But the line that prices them as a team expected to win by two or more goals does not reflect the real picture — especially given what we saw in their preparation matches and the full-strength version of Senegal they face.
The French have scored freely in friendlies, but they have also conceded avoidable goals in each of their last two tune-ups: a 2-1 loss to Ivory Coast where they were caught on the break after a half-time lead, and a 3-1 win over Northern Ireland where they conceded a sloppy goal after a defensive lapse. The official team news confirms that Deschamps intends to field an attacking 4-2-3-1, and L’Équipe explicitly warns that this shape 'penche vers l’avant' and creates a 'périlleux défi de l’équilibre' — in other words, France are more vulnerable to transition than in past tournament sides.
Senegal, for their part, arrive with their best available XI. Kalidou Koulibaly and Idrissa Gana Gueye, both major doubts in recent weeks, are now recovered and expected to start. That is a significant upgrade on the defence that was overwhelmed by the USA 3-2 in San Antonio, where the back line was described as a 'naufrage total'. With a first-choice centre-back pairing and a ball-winning midfielder back, Senegal’s unit is much harder to break down. Their attack, led by Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson, and Ismaïla Sarr, has the speed and directness to punish the spaces France’s full-backs leave behind.
A group opener with extra weight
This is not a friendly. Group I also contains Norway, meaning both teams know a positive start is vital. Senegal’s motivation is explicitly high: local media frame this as a chance to 'envoyer un message au monde entier,' referencing the 2002 upset when Senegal beat the then-world champions. Pape Thiaw has spoken about showing Senegal’s 'vraie version' in official competition. Mentally, the Lions are not here to make up the numbers.
France are of course the stronger side on paper, but their defensive numbers in preparation — conceding in every game — are not a fluke. The 4-2-3-1 formation exposes the double pivot, and while France will create chances, expecting them to win by two goals against a motivated, physically strong team with a restored defensive core is a stretch.
Senegal’s path to keeping the margin to one goal is realistic: they can sit compact, compete in midfield through Gueye and Lamine Camara, and rely on Mané’s ability to turn a single counter into a goal. If the match ends 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, or even a narrow 2-0 with a late Senegal goal, the handicap +1.5 covers. The line undervalues how often a motivated underdog with full-strength personnel can stay within a single goal against a top side that is not airtight defensively.
