Federica Urgesi and Oksana Selekhmeteva meet in the first round of WTA Tolentino on Monday, September 21 at 16:00 UTC. The rankings point one way, but the clay beneath their shoes tells a far less tidy story.
Urgesi arrives with clay under her shoes
Urgesi built a convincing run in Saint-Palais-sur-Mer, beating No. 213 Maria Lourdes Carle 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 before pushing Clara Burel in the semifinal. Her latest defeat to Miriam Bulgaru came after missed match points, so the concern is finishing rather than finding a competitive level.
Selekhmeteva's ceiling is higher, but her serve has recently behaved like an unreliable travel companion. She hit 17 double faults in a 7-5, 6-4 loss to No. 313 Nastasja Schunk in Valencia, continuing a pattern that has repeatedly left her scrambling through service games.
The favorite's serve opens the door
Urgesi has the backhand to absorb Selekhmeteva's left-handed forehand crosscourt, while her drop shot and willingness to move forward can disturb the rhythm. The regional home support also matters if she can turn it into energy rather than tension near the finish line.
Both players have wobbled when closing sets, but Selekhmeteva's service instability is the more persistent problem. With Urgesi already showing she can control strong clay opposition, her price looks generous despite the ranking gap.
Prediction: Federica Urgesi to win, odds 2.53
