The Pittsburgh Pirates still have a narrow Wild Card path, while the Kansas City Royals are playing spoiler and sorting pieces for next season. Friday’s series opener offers Pittsburgh a clean offensive assignment: lift the sinker and make the traveling bullpen work.
Pirates have found power beyond the obvious names
Paul Skenes is listed to start after completing his deepest outing in several months at Wrigley Field. His command and weak-contact profile improved, although two four-seamers left in hittable locations went over the fence.
Pittsburgh continues to monitor Skenes’ workload after earlier concerns about fastball life and recovery. There is no fresh indication of a scratch, but the coaching staff has shown that it will protect him rather than chase extra outs solely because the standings demand them.
The lineup has become harder to pitch around. Oneil Cruz homered Wednesday and drove in two runs Thursday, Brandon Lowe went deep in each of the first two Milwaukee games, and Konnor Griffin supplied a two-run double in the series finale.
Ryan O’Hearn has returned from the injured list and homered in Skenes’ previous start, as detailed by mlb.com. Rested during Thursday’s day game, he should be available to restore another left-handed barrel against Randy Dobnak.
The catch is bullpen mileage. Pittsburgh used Wilber Dotel, Khristian Curtis, Gregory Soto, Camilo Doval, Luke Weaver and Mason Montgomery on Thursday, with Montgomery working beyond a standard three-out save and Doval pitching for a second straight day.
Royals need Dobnak to keep the ball on the floor
Randy Dobnak is listed to start on a normal turn after working into the sixth inning at Fenway Park. His sinker remains the entire map: down in the zone, it produces quick contact; elevated, it enters the left-handed lift path that Pittsburgh has been using well.
Kansas City’s young lineup showed more bite Wednesday, with John Rave and Michael Massey supplying home-run damage and Carter Jensen delivering an extra-base hit. Maikel Garcia and Jac Caglianone have recently returned from injuries, although their workloads and defensive use remain fluid.
The late innings are less settled. Carlos Estévez is out following shoulder surgery, Lucas Erceg has only recently returned from Triple-A after losing the fixed closer role, and James McArthur had begun a rehab assignment without an announced activation for this series.
Thursday’s bullpen usage in Houston was still unknown at the information cutoff. The Royals also face an overnight flight to Pittsburgh and a one-hour move east, while the Pirates remained home after an afternoon game.
Right field offers a target, not a giveaway
First pitch at PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET, with temperatures around 76°F and little rain risk. A light breeze is expected to move from left toward right, helpful to properly lifted contact but nowhere near strong enough to turn routine flies into souvenirs.
PNC Park’s reachable right-field side fits Cruz, Lowe and O’Hearn better than its deep left-center dimensions fit many right-handed hitters. The high wall still demands a clean barrel; cheap elevation alone will not pay the bill.
Make Dobnak climb, then test the Royals’ relief map
The Pirates’ best route is plain enough for a scout’s notebook: refuse the sinker below the knees and punish the one that stays at thigh height. Cruz and Lowe are already driving the ball, while O’Hearn adds another left-handed hitter capable of pulling elevated contact toward the park’s inviting side.
Dobnak can protect Kansas City by generating early ground balls and carrying the game into the middle innings. If Pittsburgh forces deeper counts instead, the Royals must expose a bullpen with uncertain roles after difficult overnight travel.
Backing the Pittsburgh team total also avoids tying the wager to Skenes’ leash or the Pirates’ tired high-leverage group. Five runs can be reached through the favorable sinker matchup and Kansas City’s relief uncertainty without requiring Pittsburgh to protect a narrow lead.
The danger is Dobnak locating at the bottom of the zone and turning Pittsburgh’s lift-oriented swings into harmless grounders. The Royals’ Thursday usage was also unresolved, so their bullpen may arrive in better shape than the travel schedule suggests.
Game prediction: Pirates team total Over 4.5, odds 1.87
