Aryna Sabalenka and Kamilla Rakhimova meet in the US Open third round on Friday, September 4, 2026, at 15:00 UTC. The winner market offers little room; the useful question is whether Rakhimova can collect enough holds to extend the match.
Sabalenka has moved closer to the baseline
Sabalenka followed an uneven opener by dismissing qualifier Polina Iatcenko 6-1, 6-1 in 54 minutes. She took the ball early, won 30 of 45 return points and allowed almost no neutral rallies, which is usually the correct arrangement for the two-time defending champion on this court.
Rakhimova has earned her place here, beating Barbora Krejcikova 7-6, 6-2 before controlling Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3, 6-0. The concern is her delivery: eight double faults against Krejcikova and modest serve speed leave little margin against the most aggressive returner she has faced this week.
The second delivery is where the total shrinks
Rakhimova can absorb pace, keep depth through the middle and occasionally draw a loose Sabalenka service game. That may alter a set without making it long; breaks are only useful to the over when the underdog can protect the next hold.
Sabalenka leads their series 3-0, and her current return position should keep Rakhimova under pressure from the first second serve. Scores such as 6-2, 6-3 or 6-1, 6-4 leave room for one untidy Sabalenka passage while remaining below the line.
Prediction: Total Under 18.5 games, odds 1.79
