San Francisco Giants — Los Angeles Dodgers

The market sees a massive pitching mismatch and assumes a Dodgers blowout. But with Los Angeles resting on their division crown and fighting travel fatigue, the Giants have a structural edge to keep things unexpectedly close.

The Dodgers have the stronger listed starter, but the Giants enter this series opener with a day off and a fresher bullpen. That matters when the line asks San Francisco to stay within two runs.